15 March 2022

"российский военный корабль иди трахни себя."

Famously said by some very brave Ukrainian border guards stationed on a small island in the Black Sea in the face of a Russian warship having been asked to surrender. (Translation, "Fuck off!"). Apparently the Ukrainians survived.

The whole situation in Ukraine is sickening. Although, all this holier than thou response by the West is hypocritical - Afganistan, Iraq, Nicaragua, Chile etc. etc. We've done this too and, in the case of Iraq, at least, with very little care for conscripted soldiers and civilians. It's murder on an industrial scale.

Tuesday's Guardian had an interesting "Long Read" on the Ukraine war. The West needs to reflect carefully on its lack of awareness of how different statements and actions have impacted on the Russian perception of NATO ambitions. Seeing things from Putin's place does at least make the aggression more logical. That's not to excuse Putin but it is to put it into perspective.

The history is complex, but important. The relationship between Ukraine and Russia, deeply intertwined. The recent political history of Ukraine is convoluted. Younger people are perhaps more likely to to be more nationalist and anti-Russian. But there are also cultural divides within the country between the south and east of the country which are more closely aligned with Russia. Russia, is a country with a deep psyche, a place that has suffered over and over in the last hundred years or so. The betrayal of the workers' state, interestingly predicted well before the revolution of 1917, by Peter Kropotkin (In Our Time, BBC). And then the gradual betrayal of democracy by Putin. The country has pretty much reverted to pre-revolution Tsarism, aristocracy replaced by greedy, and quite likely, corrupt, oligarchs. In London, there has been little discomfort with this situation up to now, many people happy to line their own pockets. In Russia there is an increasing divide between the generations it appears. It's hard to know if that is real or part of a propaganda war. However, the bravery of many Russians protesting the war, in a state where draconian responses to protest are likely might indicate a change of attitude in the longer term.

With regard to the invasion of Ukraine the Western sanctions are an effective response, and the military restraint of the West on this occasion commendable, although Russia's nuclear arsenal and the mentality of the person with the metaphorical finger on the trigger might be influencing that decision perhaps. The West now has to disentangle itself from corruption and greed before, in time, re-establishing a better, more honest relationship. Russia cannot be permanently barred, or the resentment will fester and boil over in some other way in the future. 

In order to end the war negotiation is necessary, and is apparently beginning to occur. I strangely find myself agreeing with Max Hastings who has suggested that Ukraine will need to concede enough for Putin to be able to "go home" stating a victory has been achieved. Otherwise this will not end, it is too dangerous for Putin, for his future reign, to leave empty-handed.

In all of this, both in Russia, Ukraine and the West it is the ordinary people who suffer. Suffer increased oppression, destruction of their homes and lives pushed further towards the edge of poverty.

I do wonder, that if men were banned from becoming political leaders, that only women could become heads of state, if we would ever have such destruction and misery laid upon each other. I appreciate that is not actually a practical, or feasible solution.

The positive to come from this is the response of ordinary people offering Ukrainians a refuge, in Poland, Moldova and other European countries. Our Government in the UK of course has disgraced itself again in this regard. Too little offered, or at least the offer is too late, compounding misery with more grief, stress and uncertainty for those fleeing war.

Romesh Ranganathan's programme the other night, travelling around Sierra Leone, was a look into a country recovering from desperately destructive, twelve year, civil war. A war that was even more difficult to rationalise. And a war that has left a country with many riches the ninth poorest in the world. 

Let's hope the war in Ukraine ends before both Ukraine and Russia are diminished in the same way because it will be the working class, the ordinary folk, who will end up paying, they always do.


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